The WMO/UNEP “Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010” will be ready in early 2011, but the executive summary of this report is already available. It provides new information about the relationship between the ozone layer and climate change, and highlights the successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments.
The summary states that over the past decade, global ozone is no longer decreasing but is not yet increasing. Using numerical models of the Earth’s atmosphere, the report predicts that the stratospheric ozone layer will fully recover within the next 50 years.
Regarding the influence of ozone changes on ultraviolet radiation, the executive summary says that large UV levels in Antarctica continue to be seen when the springtime ozone hole is large. For instance, the Antarctic spring erythemal irradiance is approximately twice that measured in the Arctic for the same season. In addition, it is reaffirmed that at mid-latitudes, surface UV radiation has been about constant over the last decade, consistent with total ozone column observations over this period.